US midterm elections are a very unreliable way to predict the next president Adam Bolton | US News

By definition, midterm elections in the U.S. take place after two years in the presidency and two years before the next general election.

They have no direct relationship to who is the President of the United States who lives in the White House.

The midterm elections are about electing officials into Congress — the other legislative body of the U.S. government, and the offices of each of the 50 states, with a constitutional check on centralized government in Washington, D.C.

In poring over the many results of massive national votes involving millions of people, it’s worth remembering that extrapolating from the midterms is a very unreliable way of predicting who will be the next president or even who will be the primary candidate in the race. .

Recent history shows how wrong judgments can be hasty. With two years to go before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is widely seen as an unlikely candidate for the joke. At a similar point in time before 2008, the conventional wisdom favored Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani as candidates.

Very different people, Barack Obama and John McCain, actually beat it in the end. In 1994 Newt Gingrich led the “Republican Revolution” with his “Compact with America,” crushing the ambitions of Bill Clinton’s Democrats.he is time magazine’s Person of the Year and is considered a future president. Despite multiple bids for the White House, he never came close.

The final results are yet to be announced, but there are already some signs of the political mood in the US.

The “expected” red wave is more like a ripple. There is almost always a backlash against the first president’s party in midterm elections, but the Democrats have fared much better under President Joe Biden than under Mr Obama or Mr Clinton.

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Surge in Republican support for Trump fails to take off

As Dominic Waghorn reports here, Republican candidates supported by Donald Trump fared much worse than those who shunned him.

GOP analysts believe only a handful of GOP candidates are interested in campaigning on “big steal” — the false claim that Trump really won re-election in 2020 — and the party is now shaking off Donald Trump’s obsessed.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the Republican Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, pointedly called Democrat John Fetterman to ask him to throw in the towel. Mr Trump is said to be furious that his wife Melania supported the TV news Downplaying Mr Trump on election night and Rupert Murdoch’s leading US newspapers, the Wall Street Journal and New York Post, severely criticized him. The Washington Post this week called the former president a “temper tantrum.”

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“Red Tide” failed to appear

Control of the evenly divided U.S. Senate fell to three states that also played a key role in determining the outcome of the 2020 presidential election: Nevada, Arizona and Georgia. The Dec. 6 special election runoff in Georgia will be key, given Republicans’ polls are not as strong as they’d like. Under state law, the winner must receive more than 50 percent of the vote. In the first round, Democratic incumbent pastor Raphael Warnock got 49.2 percent, while his Republican opponent, former football star Herschel Walker, got 48.7 percent.

From January next year, the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives will switch from Democrats to Republicans. Kevin McCarthy will replace Nancy Pelosi as Speaker, the third-highest elected office in the United States. The Republican House is likely to block President Biden from passing any further major legislation. The investigation into the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol and Trump’s role in it may be put on hold.

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Donald Trump may soon be yesterday’s news as US right-wing media turns to Ron DeSantis
Can Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis stop Donald Trump from running for the White House?

The night’s standout winner was Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 44, who won re-election in a landslide in what is now Trump’s home state.Another name to keep an eye on is the high-profile and ambitious JD Vance, author of the best-selling “Hillhill Elegy”. He had a poor run, but still handily won the Ohio Senate seat for Republicans.

Just before the election, it was assumed that the 2024 race would be a repeat of 2020: Biden versus Trump. Both have made clear their intent to stand up again, though neither has officially announced it yet. An incumbent like Biden is usually not seriously challenged by his party if he (all of them so far) come up with his name. The Trump machine looks unbeatable.

Trump vs. DeSantis battle expected

The Democrats’ relatively modest defeat this week appears to have bolstered Biden’s position. But despite Trump’s insistence in advance that the GOP’s poor performance had nothing to do with him, there are now question marks over him. A nomination battle is widely expected between Mr. Trump and Mr. DeSantis. Things are unlikely to be that simple.

Mr. Trump has a busy few days ahead. On Monday, he was subpoenaed to appear in the House’s Jan. 6 inquiry — though whether he will appear is a matter of speculation. On Tuesday, he promised a “very big announcement” that he said would “probably” be the largest in U.S. history. It is widely expected to be the official launch of his 2024 re-election bid. Win or lose, the campaign is Trump’s moneymaker.

Becoming president would be the best way to get rid of various civil and legal suits. But top Republicans don’t want him to be their nominee, and pressure is mounting on him to delay. If he backs out, Mr. DeSantis is sure to come forward. However, the Republican nomination is sure to have a contested primary, and it is uncertain whether Mr. DeSantis will emerge as the winner. If Mr. DeSantis is drawn into a bloody contest with Mr. Trump while others see themselves as compromise candidates, his prospects are even more uncertain.

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The answer to the Republican nominee’s dilemma could determine whether Joe Biden, who turns 80 on Nov. 20, actually pursues the Democratic nomination and re-election. Analyzing the data, Republican pollster Frank Luntz explained that Mr Biden is the only Democratic candidate likely to beat Mr Trump (he has already done it once), but paradoxically, any other The Republican nominee would defeat Mr. Biden. Democrats would be wise to choose someone other than Mr. Biden, if not against Mr. Trump.

The Fallacy of Opinion Polls

The erroneous nature of U.S. polls adds to the uncertainty. Polls and the data mining aggregators that work from them, such as Nate Silver’s, had another bad night this week. John Della Volpe, director of the poll at Harvard’s Kennedy School, had a better vision of mere “red ripples.”

He noted that most business polls are commissioned by right-leaning entities and tend to show Republicans doing better than they actually are. In particular, their sample failed to capture the high participation of young voters and their centrist leanings, likely driven by Supreme Court rulings against abortion.

What this all means is that we don’t yet know what the political battlefield will look like in 2024, nor can we be sure who the “frontrunners” will be. It would be unwise to read too much into the midterm elections or pay too much attention to the pundits who tell us that President Trump is almost certain in 2024. There was indeed a bewildering miracle of democracy on this November’s ballot.

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